Ukraine: Coping with Post-Soviet Legacies

Abstract

Ukraine hosts the world's largest foreign-funded SALW and ammunition destruction program. Designed to eliminate 133,000 tons of ammunition, 1,531,664 small arms and 1,000 Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS), the NATO-sponsored Ukraine destruction program is far larger than any other internationally sponsored small arms destruction project ever undertaken. Even if fully implemented, however, the NATO-Ukraine project will eliminate only about five per cent of the country's total of some 2.4 million tons of ammunition and no more than 20 per cent of an official small arms inventory numbering somewhere between six and 15 million weapons. Destruction has been limited partially by the slow pace of military reform, but even more by financial pressure, decision-making weakness, and the desire to sell surplus weapons. If current impasses can be overcome, if reforms continue and additional foreign funding becomes available, destruction of the Ukraine surplus could continue for decades. Meanwhile, Ukraine's massive stockpiles are subject to catastrophic accidents, theft, diversion, and unpredictable exports.