Ukraina i pułapka Tukidydesa: Jak uniknąć konfliktu światowego?

Abstract

The “Thucydides trap” is a term popularized by the political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe the danger which occurs when a rising power rivals an established one. The description of the Peloponnesian war, especially of its reasons, consequences and the debate between the realist and idealist perspectives provided in the Melian Dialogue are still relevant to analyze today’s armed conflicts, and partially the current war in Ukraine, which, because of the NATO involve- ment, can dangerously develops from a local to a global conflict, and the strategic competition between USA and China. An applications in this work of the comparative method allows to refer to such issues as, the reasons of war between superpowers, the need for professional diplomacy and a realistic calculation of forces. Additionally, the factors that are decive for a character of warlike are presented: fear, real benefits, rational calculation of forces, demoralization, ideology, community or conflict of interest, view from both sides, building cooperation rather than hostility. Each armed conflict for its rational justification should be analyzed by reference to these factors. While warning against war, it must be admitted that because of the Thucydides trap, there are usually no winners in a war between superpowers. We should consider this prudent historical lesson and the realist arguments, and stop the war in Ukraine, as soon as we can, rather than further escalate it.