UKIP Support in Local Elections: Which Factors Play a Role in Determining Electoral Fortunes?

Abstract

In recent years, a growing body of research has been produced concerning factors driving electoral support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). In this article, I seek to provide novel insights into factors that drive UKIP support in elections at the local level. Drawing on electoral, economic, migratory, demographic, and crime data from 2004-2016 for all London boroughs, a series of fixed effect panel models are constructed to assess longitudinal effects on UKIP support. Results display rising crime, falling turnout, and falling Conservative party vote share lead to rises in UKIP vote share, while changes in migration rates, economic well-being, size of British population, and Labour party vote share have no meaningful effect on UKIP vote share. These findings show that while perceptions of immigration and the economy may affect voter choice for Eurosceptic, nationalist, and populist parties, actual change in migration and economic conditions have no effect on voter support. Additionally, there is substantial evidence that rising rates of local crime lead voters to seek out parties with a policy platform supporting strengthened criminal justice measures. Finally, UKIP support in local elections is shown to be drawn heavily from former Conservative voters, as opposed to disenchanted Labour supporters.