Abstract
We have revised down our forecasts of GDP growth for this year and next, from 2.4% and 2.5% respectively three months ago, to 2.1% and 2.3% now. The downgrades reflect the heightened uncertainty caused by the recent financial market turbulence and the upcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, as well as evidence of softer global growth. We expect the first interest rate hike to come in Q2 2017, with the risks skewed towards a later move.
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