UK nuclear and fossil fuel energy infrastructure climate risks

Abstract

The energy sector’s importance as critical national infrastructure means that the sector has been long prepared for disruptions, of which weather-related disruptions are generally well understood. Climate change means changing mean operating conditions, new and more frequent extremes and changing risk profiles. These changes have the potential to disrupt operations, while others may have long-term effects on the performance of infrastructure. This paper reviews the current knowledge base surrounding climate impacts on the infrastructure and operations of the nuclear, coal, oil and gas subsectors. We also present assessment of ‘confidence in the science’. The risks identified within the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) were comprehensive; however, we note areas in need of further investigation. Risks to upstream oil and gas are not covered in detail, and risks to new energy systems, in particular carbon capture and storage and unconventional fossil fuels, are not covered at all. Their detailed consideration in the next CCRA is recommended, alongside more systems approaches to risk assessment of the UK energy system.