UCR violent crime rates, 1958–2000: recorded and offender-generated trends

Abstract

According to Uniform Crime Report data, the rates of some violent crimes, such as rapes and aggravated assaults, increased steadily from the early 1960s until the early 1990s with only an occasional downturn. The increase in robbery rates slowed somewhat, but overall increased during most of this period. Homicide is the only UCR violent crime that did not increase relatively steadily throughout this period: it showed no clear trend up or down from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s. This investigation suggests that the long-term increases in the rape, robbery, and aggravated assault rates did not represent trends in offender-generated violent behavior. Instead, long periods of this upward trend in recorded rates reflect increases in the efficiency of reporting and recording these crimes. Specifically, the rates of these violent crimes increased during the 1960s; remained fairly stable during much of the 1970s and 1980s; and decreased from the early 1990s to the present. These results have implications for criminological theories that attempt to explain crime trends in the United States during the second half of the 20th century, for “objectivist” and “constructivist” perspectives, and for social and political policies.