Abstract

Overview The Bush administration and Congress are in concert on the goal of developing a fleet of unmanned aircraft that can reduce both defense costs and aircrew losses in combat by taking on at least the most dangerous combat missions. Unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) will be neither inexpensive enough to be readily expendable nor--at least in early development--capable of performing every combat mission alongside or in lieu of manned sorties. Yet the tremendous potential of such systems is widely recognized, and allies as well as potential adversaries are moving quickly to mount their own research and development programs. The United States is committed to fielding UCAV capabilities by 2010, principally for the missions of suppression of enemy air defense and deep strike, which are among the highest risk tasks for the Air Force and naval aviation. Currently, UCAVs are unproven, infant technologies just being designed, simulated, and demonstrated. Enthusiasts must be aware that significant technological, policy, and operational challenges must be met. An operational UCAV capability is not expected to be available to U.S. field and fleet commanders for 10 years. Yet a nexus of mature technologies, policy support, and operational needs has been reached, and it is both possible and necessary to accelerate development of UCAVs. Their potential is apparent, and there is sustained momentum behind programs for all the services. Promise and Challenges Unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) have the earmarks of becoming one of the disruptive technologies that transform conventional military operations across the full spectrum of combat scenarios from peacekeeping to regional wars. In battle, forces engage an adversary by either direct combat or indirect fires. Indirect fires, or standoff engagements, preserve forces and are preferred whenever available and effective. UCAVs promise to carry the concept of indirect fires to a new level. They will be more flexible than missiles in time-sensitive target selection and more readily expendable in high-risk environments than manned systems, and they will have a greater sustained battle presence than either missiles or manned systems. In time, UCAVs may liberate manned systems (such as airborne warning and control systems [AWACS] or joint surveillance and target attack radar systems [JSTARS]) from such routine missions as command, control, and communications protection or carrier battle group air cover. They may also perform a majority of the sorties for long endurance operations, such as Northern Watch and Southern Watch over Iraq. Eventually UCAVs may be so sophisticated that they will be safer than manned systems for close support of ground forces and more successful than manned aircraft in air-to-air combat. They could someday join the air defense arsenal against either strategic ballistic missiles or cruise missiles. The intersection of technology advances, national security policy, and operational requirements has led to the commitment to near-term UCAV deployment. However, an array of technological, policy, and operational challenges must first be overcome: Technology * On-board signal processing, decision aids, and wideband data network links must afford a satisfactory mix of autonomous operation and man-in-the-loop (MITL) decisionmaking. * Advanced electro-optical, infrared, and radio frequency (EO/IR/RF) passive and active sensors must provide for accurate target detection, designation, and engagement for both moving and stationary targets. * Airframes and systems must be survivable against more capable air- and ground-based countermeasures, including missiles, gunfire, or energy-based weapons. Stealth technologies will be crucial. * Automatic flight controllability will have to extend to a broader range of fight profiles, including hypersonic speed and evasive maneuvers in excess of human tolerances (9 times the force of gravity). …

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