U.S. policies and middle distillate markets in transition

Abstract

The large mid-distillate market encompassing home heating and diesel fuels is analyzed in terms of its growth, price inflation, and shifting regional and demand patterns. Annual stock movements from 1974 are correlated with energy and weather disruptions along with Federal Government policies. These suggest a delicate balance between insecure petroleum sources and inventory practices of the refiners which could easily lead to shortages in the near future. In the long-run, the distillates are tied to the production and profits of the larger gasoline market, where demand is expected to fall sharply.