U.S. Monetary Expectations and Emerging Market Debt Flows

Abstract

This paper examines the effects that changes to U.S. monetary expectations have on debt flows to emerging markets since the Global Financial Crisis. First, daily interest rate expectations measured by federal fund futures and a shadow rate model are used to categorize Federal Reserve announcements as easing (unexpected), tightening (unexpected), easing (expected), and tightening (expected). Second, the announcements categorized by the shadow rate model are used for an event study on daily emerging market debt flows by currency (all currencies, hard currency, local currency, mixed currency), investor (all investors, active investors, passive investors), and region (Asia excluding Japan, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Latin America, and Global Emerging Markets (Global EM)). The results show that tightening (unexpected) announcements cause emerging market debt outflows, hard currency debt flows respond more to announcements than local currency debt flows, and that passive investors respond more than active investors. Debt flows to Latin America respond more to announcements than debt flows to Asia ex-Japan, EMEA, and Global EM.