Abstract
Economic and social factors compel large-scale changes in energy systems. An ongoing transition in the United States is driven by environmental concerns, changing patterns of energy end-use, constraints on petroleum supply. Analysis of prior transitions shows that energy intensity in the U.S. from 1820 to 2010 features a declining trend when traditional energy is included, in contrast to the “inverted U-curve” seen when only commercial energy is considered. This analysis quantifies use of human and animal muscle power, wind and water power, biomass, harvested ice, fossil fuels, and nuclear power, with some consumption series extending back to 1780. The analysis reaffirms the importance of innovation in energy conversion technologies in energy transitions. An increase in energy intensity in the early 20th century is explained by diminishing returns to pre-electric manufacturing systems, which produced a transformation in manufacturing. In comparison to similar studies for other countries, the U.S. has generally higher energy intensity.
Highlights
The dramatic economic, social, technological and environmental changes that accompany energy transitions are well documented (examples include Schurr and Netschert (1960) [1], Smil (1991) [2], Grubler (2012) [3], Kander et al (2007) [4], Fouquet (2008) [5])
In 1990 fossil fuels accounted for 86 percent of primary energy use in the United States; in 2013 that share stood at percent
The vast gains in efficiency created by technological progress allow societies to employ higher-cost energy resources with a net reduction in cost per unit of energy service delivered
Summary
The dramatic economic, social, technological and environmental changes that accompany energy transitions are well documented (examples include Schurr and Netschert (1960) [1], Smil (1991) [2], Grubler (2012) [3], Kander et al (2007) [4], Fouquet (2008) [5]). Major changes in the energy conditions of life—fire, agriculture, fossil fuels—are milestones in human history. Energy supply is changing rapidly in some nations. Penetration rates of low-carbon generation have increased from 50% to 56% in recent years in Europe, as European Union countries work toward renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions targets. In the United States, wind and solar power are expanding rapidly, natural gas is replacing coal for electricity generation on a large scale, and petroleum use has plateaued. Other evidence suggests that major change in energy supply can be slow. In 1990 fossil fuels accounted for 86 percent of primary energy use in the United States; in 2013 that share stood at percent. Petroleum use in China, India, and in countries in the Middle East is projected to expand
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