Typologation and Analysis of the Significance of Risks and Threats to the Energy Security of the Republic of Belarus Taking into Account the Integration of Belarusian NPP in the Energy System

Abstract

The article examines the most significant risks and threats to energy security in the conditions of integration of the Belarusian NPP into the energy system of the Republic of Belarus. The article also presents an analysis of existing methodological approaches to the assessment of energy security. The risk typology was carried out according to two criteria: the stages of the technological process and the sources of risks. As a result, production, financial and information risks (caused by information technologies) are highlighted. On the basis of an expert survey of specialists of republican unitary energy enterprises and of “Belenergo” State Production Association, a ranking of risks was carried out and the most significant of them were identified. It was determined that the most significant production risks are: depreciation of fixed assets; reduction in the utilization of own generating capacities and reliability of the generating equipment and network; outages that lead to disruption of the functioning of facilities for ensuring the vital activity of the population. The most important financial risks include: the increase in the cost of basic fuel and energy resources; shortage of working capital and investments; lack of sources of financing for the reconstruction of heating networks; reduction of consumer solvency; provision of discounts from tariffs to a significant number of business entities. According to respondents, among information risks the most important ones are the following: failures in the operation of informatization facilities that directly control the generating equipment of power plants, equipment of switchgears of power plants, equipment of substations; hacker cyberattacks; insufficient level of qualification of personnel, lack of interest of employees in the introduction of information technologies. The proposed threat identification and risk ranking at all stages of energy production can be used to develop measures to strengthen the country's energy security and assess their impact on socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus.