Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO

Xingru Feng,Dezhou Yang,Lingjing Xu,Guandong Gao,Fujiang Yu,Mingjie Li,Baoshu Yin,Yuanlong Li

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-89507-7

Abstract

In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.

Highlights

In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging
The total direct economic loss brought by marine disasters over the past decade (2010–2019) was 100.122 billion CNY, 46.6% of which was caused by the AMTSS events
The typhoon storm surge is a major type of marine disasters in China causing serious life and economical losses every year, but its prediction with a long leading time is difficult

Summary

Introduction

In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. The prediction of storm surge is a challenging task, given the complexities in typhoon behaviors and dynamical responses of coastal ocean to typhoons[3,4] With these regards, the deterministic portion of the AMTSS variability associated with low-frequency climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents potential predictability for the AMTSS and is worthy of in-depth investigation. This study utilizes the typhoon storm surge records from 23 tide-gauge stations located in the typhoon-prone areas of the southeast Chinese mainland to examine the relationship between the AMTSS with ENSO, and the underlying causes for the correlations are explored. This is true for the AMTSS that can directly cause disastrous damages to people residing in islands and coastal regions

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Results

Conclusion