Types of uncertainties and understanding of risks of losses and damages

Abstract

This chapter explores the different levels of confidence and associated uncertainties influencing understanding of risks of losses and damages from climate change. Specifically, it looks at different levels of confidence in projections of the physical climate and in expectations of future vulnerability and exposure. These include and/or relate to uncertainties on emissions trajectories; on how the climate system responds to those emissions; climate variability and uncertainty about socio-economic development patterns. The chapter includes worked analytical examples that unpack and illustrate the different types of uncertainties. It ends by examining how these uncertainties need to be considered together for an effective communication of climate risk.