Type 1 Diabetes in 2017 - Global Estimates of Incident and Prevalent Cases in Children and Adults

Abstract

Background: Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups by country and areas defined by income and region. Methods: Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children from existing literature were used and extrapolated to adults using available data on adult to child incidence ratios. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality between countries. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence, and disease duration. Findings: Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively. High income countries, with 17% of the global population, account for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia has the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases and the largest proportion of the population (60%). Globally, the prevalent cases were 6%, 35%, 43%, and 6% in the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64, and 65+ years, respectively. Interpretation: Globally type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations. This study provides information for development of health care and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. Funding Statement: The study was funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, through grant 5NU2GGH001235-05-00 of the WHO-CDC Cooperative Agreement, and by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust as part of the ACCISS Study. Declaration of Interests: AG and SMH report grants from the Institute of Applied Economics and Health Research, Copenhagen, Denmark outside the submitted work. SW reports non-financial support from Novo Nordisk, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests.