Abstract
Arctic sea ice plays a significant role in climate systems, and its prediction is important for coping with global warming. Artificial intelligence (AI) has gained recent attention in various disciplines with the increasing use of big data. In recent years, the use of AI-based sea ice prediction, along with conventional prediction models, has drawn attention. This study proposes a new deep learning (DL)-based Arctic sea ice prediction model with a new perceptual loss function to improve both statistical and visual accuracy. The proposed DL model learned spatiotemporal characteristics of Arctic sea ice for sequence-to-sequence predictions. The convolutional neural network-based perceptual loss function successfully captured unique sea ice patterns, and the widely used loss functions could not use various feature maps. Furthermore, the input variables that are essential to accurately predict Arctic sea ice using various combinations of input variables were identified. The proposed approaches produced statistical outcomes with better accuracy and qualitative agreements with the observed data.
Highlights
IntroductionAcademic Editors: Juha Karvonen and Anton Korosov
To address the limitations of the current prediction models, we propose an ensemble model with a new loss function that enables multi-step Arctic sea ice predictions
The proposed TS-ConvLSTM model had the smallest prediction error at t+1, and the variations according to the lead-time were the smallest among all prediction models
Summary
Academic Editors: Juha Karvonen and Anton Korosov. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Sea ice, referred to as frozen seawater, is a primary indicator of global warming and climate change because of the ice–albedo feedback—open water absorbs solar energy, while sea ice reflects it [1]. Arctic sea ice plays an essential role in climate change in mid-latitude regions [2]. Satellite observations using passive microwave sensors over a period of >40 years have shown the long-term decline of Arctic sea ice, in the last decade. The average sea ice is becoming younger, and multi-year ice regions at the beginning of the satellite record were greater than the first-year ice regions [3,4]
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