Two-Step Prediction Technique for Dengue Outbreak in Thailand

Abstract

Dengue fever is a tropical disease caused by dengue virus. This virus is transmitted by mosquitoes. Dengue can also be transmitted via infected blood products and through organ donation. There are many infected people in each year. Thus, if the number of patients can be predicted, vaccines for dengue fever will be able to prepare for serving all patients in that area. This research proposed a two-step prediction method that combines time series forecasting analysis and supervised learning techniques to predict the number of dengue fever patient cases. In generally, the result of prediction from only the number of patient cases is not good enough for application; accuracy and confidence are low. In this research, the environmental factors are considered and predicted. Then, these factors are used for predicting the number patient cases. The experimental results show that the proposed two-step prediction technique is a good choice for dengue fever prediction. The accuracy is better than the simple prediction technique.