Two-Stage Model-Based Predicting PV Generation with the Conjugation of IoT Sensor Data.

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel short-term photovoltaic voltage (PV) prediction scheme using IoT sensor data with the two-stage neural network model. It is efficient to use environmental data provided by the meteorological agency to predict future PV generation. However, such environmental data represent the average value of the wide area, and there is a limitation in detecting environmental changes in the specific area where the solar panel is installed. In order to solve such issues, it is essential to establish IoT sensor data to detect environmental changes in the specific area. However, most conventional research focuses only on the efficiency of IoT sensor data without taking into account the timing of data acquisition from the sensors. In real-world scenarios, IoT sensor data is not available precisely when needed for predictions. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the IoT data first and then use it to forecast PV generation. In this paper, we propose a two-stage model to achieve high-accuracy prediction results. In the first stage, we use predicted environmental data to access IoT sensor data in the desired future time point. In the second stage, the predicted IoT sensors and environmental data are used to predict PV generation. Here, we determine the appropriate prediction scheme at each stage by analyzing the model characteristics to increase prediction accuracy. In addition, we show that the proposed prediction scheme could increase prediction accuracy by more than 12% compared to the baseline scheme that only uses a meteorological agency to predict PV generation.