Two nomograms for differentiating mass-forming chronic pancreatitis from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in patients with chronic pancreatitis.

Abstract

To develop and validate a CT nomogram and a radiomics nomogram to differentiate mass-forming chronic pancreatitis (MFCP) from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP). In this retrospective study, the data of 138 patients with histopathologically diagnosed MFCP or PDAC treated at our institution were retrospectively analyzed. Two radiologists analyzed the original cross-sectional CT images based on predefined criteria. Image segmentation, feature extraction, and feature reduction and selection were used to create the radiomics model. The CT and radiomics models were developed using data from a training cohort of 103 consecutive patients. The models were validated in 35 consecutive patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to develop a model for the differential diagnosis of MFCP and PDAC and visualized as a nomogram. The nomograms' performances were determined based on their differentiating ability and clinical utility. The mean age of patients was 53.7 years, 75.4% were male. The CT nomogram showed good differentiation between the two entities in the training (area under the curve [AUC], 0.87) and validation (AUC, 0.94) cohorts. The radiomics nomogram showed good differentiation in the training (AUC, 0.91) and validation (AUC, 0.93) cohorts. Decision curve analysis showed that patients could benefit from the CT and radiomics nomograms, if the threshold probability was 0.05-0.85 and > 0.05, respectively. The two nomograms reasonably accurately differentiated MFCP from PDAC in patients with CP and hold potential for refining the management of pancreatic masses in CP patients. • A CT nomogram and a computed tomography-based radiomics nomogram reasonably accurately differentiated mass-forming chronic pancreatitis from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP). • The two nomograms can monitor the cancer risk in patients with CP and hold promise to optimize the management of pancreatic masses in patients with CP.