Two-Dimensional Projection of Distribution and Abundance of Common Species of Spiders and Beetles in South Korea Caused by Climate Change

Abstract

The selection of explanatory variables is very important in a species distribution model for predicting changes in the distribution of organisms caused by climate change. In this study, a two-dimensional prediction of the abundance and distribution of beetles and spiders using temperature and precipitation was compared with the results of previous studies that employed a one-dimensional prediction using temperature. This study used the data from previous surveys for 366 forest sites in South Korea between 2006 and 2009 using pitfall traps. Species distribution models were created for 51 species with a high occurrence (collected from more than 10% of the total sites). A generalized additive model (GAM) was used for the distribution models. The future abundance and distribution based on climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were predicted by selecting 35 species from 51 common species for which climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) had a significant effect on abundance and distribution. In a two-dimensional prediction using temperature and precipitation, the range of change was larger compared with a one-dimensional prediction using temperature, and precipitation had a significant effect on decreasing species.