Two-Dimensional Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Economic Growth: A Case Study of 57 Cities in the Yellow River Basin.

Abstract

Precise decoupling of CO2 emission and economic development holds promise for the sustainability of China in a post-industrialization era. This paper measures the energy-related CO2 emissions of 57 cities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during 2006–2019 and analyzes their decoupling states and dynamic evolution paths based on the derived general analytical framework of two-dimensional decoupling states to decompose their decoupling index using the LMDI method. The results show that (1) from 2006 to 2019, the economic growth and CO2 emissions of cities along the YRB are dominated by weak decoupling at an average contribution of 53.2%. Their dynamic evolution paths show fluctuations of “decoupling–recoupling” states, while the evolution trend is relatively ideal. (2) The factors of economic output, energy intensity and population scale inhibit the decoupling in most cities, which contribute 39.44%, 19.34%, and 2.75%, respectively, while the factors of industrial structure, carbon emission coefficient, and energy structure promote the decoupling in most cities in the YRB, with average contributions of −12.63%, −8.36%, and −0.67%, respectively. (3) The significant increase in the contribution of energy intensity is the main reason for the “Worse” path of cities, while the industrial structure and energy structure factors promote to the “Better” path of cities. This work satisfies the urgent need for the ecological protection of the YRB and opens new avenues for its high-quality development.