Two Applications of Statistics to Traffic Models

Abstract

Two statistical applications for estimation and prediction of flows in traffic networks are presented. In the first, the number of route users are assumed to be independent α-shifted gamma Γ(θ, λ0) random variables denoted H(α, θ, λ0), with common λ0. As a consequence, the link, OD (origin-destination) and node flows are also H(α, θ, λ0) variables. We assume that the main source of information is plate scanning, which permits us to identify, totally or partially, the vehicle route, OD and link flows by scanning their corresponding plate numbers at an adequately selected subset of links. A Bayesian approach using conjugate families is proposed that allows us to estimate different traffic flows. In the second application, a stochastic demand dynamic traffic model to predict some traffic variables and their time evolution in real networks is presented. The Bayesian network model considers that the variables are generalized Beta variables such that when marginally transformed to standard normal become multivariate normal. The model is able to provide a point estimate, a confidence interval or the density of the variable being predicted. Finally, the models are illustrated by their application to the Nguyen Dupuis network and the Vermont-State example. The resulting traffic predictions seem to be promising for real traffic networks and can be done in real time.