Twice weekly polymerase chain reaction (PCR) surveillance swabs are not as effective as daily antigen testing for containment of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks: A modeling study based on real world data from a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic.

Abstract

In the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, child and adolescent psychiatry wards face the risk of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) introduction and spread within the facility. In this setting, mask and vaccine mandates are hard to enforce, especially for younger children. Surveillance testing may detect infection early and enable mitigation measures to prevent viral spread. We conducted a modeling study to determine the optimal method and frequency of surveillance testing and to analyze the effect of weekly team meetings on transmission dynamics. Simulation with an agent-based model reflecting ward structure, work processes, and contact networks from a real-world child and adolescent psychiatry clinic with 4 wards, 40 patients, and 72 healthcare workers. We simulated the spread of 2 SARS-CoV-2 variants over 60 days under surveillance testing with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests and rapid antigen tests in different scenarios. We measured the size, peak, and the duration of an outbreak. We compared medians and percentage of spillover events to other wards from 1,000 simulations for each setting. The outbreak size, peak, and duration were dependent on test frequency, test type, SARS-CoV-2 variant, and ward connectivity. Under surveillance conditions, joint staff meetings and therapists shared between wards did not significantly change median outbreak size under surveillance conditions. With daily antigen testing, outbreaks were mostly confined to 1 ward and median outbreak sizes were lower than with twice-weekly PCR testing (1 vs 22; P < .001). Modeling can help to understand transmission patterns and guide local infection control measures.