Twenty years after the Nagorny Karabakh ceasefire: an opportunity to move towards more inclusive conflict resolution

Abstract

Twenty years ago this May the ceasefire that put an end to active fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces for control over Nagorny Karabakh was signed. It was supposed to be the first step in a process to end the conflict. But the expected pull back of forces, deployment of peacekeepers and return of displaced persons never occurred. Instead in recent years the line of contact between the sides has become increasingly tense as some thirty persons are killed every year. Negotiations facilitated by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) over a set of basic principles to guide a comprehensive settlement have become bogged down in details. Nevertheless a whole range of Armenian and Azerbaijani civil groups have over the years had opportunities to develop a third narrative, and think through concrete technical solutions to bridge fundamental differences. This article, bringing lessons from practice to bear for policy on this conflict, argues that the best push that could be made this year to strengthen the ceasefire would be to broaden the Minsk Group process, taking advantage of the civil society expertise, inter-communal trust and know-how of technical and local political elites who are currently outside the process, in order to move beyond the discussion on basic principles towards a comprehensive peace agreement.