Twenty-year impact of fire foci and its relationship with climate variables in Brazilian regions.

Abstract

In recent years, Brazil has become a major global contributor to the occurrence of national fires and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the fire foci data of the past 20years to determine their relationship with climatic variables in various Brazilian regions. The variables evaluated included fire foci, land surface temperature, rainfall, and standardized precipitation index, which were obtained via remote sensing from 2000 to 2019. The data were subjected to trend analyses (Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests) and a multivariate analysis of canonical variables for evaluation. The results showed that the Midwest and North regions had the highest occurrence of fire foci throughout the study period, and that the North region had the highest accumulated annual rainfall. Thus, these regions require specific public policies to prevent future fires. Overall, the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions exhibit significant increasing fire foci tendencies. Our results reveal that this trend is related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, which alter climatic variables such as precipitation, land surface temperature, and the standardized precipitation index. Finally, the sugarcane growing area had a significant linear relationship with fire foci in the Southeast region, especially in the state of São Paulo, the major national sugarcane producer.