Twenty-First Century Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature over Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa)

Abstract

The projection of the future climate changes is of paramount importance inasmuch as it contributes to provide useful information for adaptation planning worldwide to local scales. This study investigated the future changes using four temperature related indices based on an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations at 0.44° × 0.44° of resolution under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These indices indicate moderate extremes over Côte d’Ivoire. The results show an increase in the warm extreme indices such as the warm spell days index (HWFI), very warm days frequency index (TX90P), and the warm nights frequency index (TN90P) over the entire country under both emission scenarios. The increase in these indices was higher under RCP8.5 and reached 85, 72, and 90% for HWFI, TX90P, and TN90P respectively. In addition, the magnitude of the changes is relevant along the coastal areas in the 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 periods. Moreover, the intra period extreme temperature range (ETR) shows future decrease following a south-north gradient with values in the range [−0.5; 1.5°C] over the country during January–March (JFM) and October–December (OND) seasons whereas an increase (~0.5°C) is projected for April–June (AMJ) and July–September (JAS) seasons, particularly in the central and northern parts. The minimum temperature increases faster than the maximum, except in AMJ and JAS in the central and northern regions. On the other hand, the changes in the indices based on the mean values of the reference period (1976–2005) are in concordance to the expected warming at the end of the twenty-first century with important trends. The projected changes are, however, subject to uncertainties, which are higher under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, these changes are meaningful as all the 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations agree to an increase of warm extreme temperature.