Abstract
ABSTRACTThis paper illustrates the use of the Box‐Jenkins methodology by analyzing the Ohio Electrical Power Consumption time series. The three basic analytical steps discussed are the following:1) Model identification ‐ by matching sample autocorrelation functions against theoretical autocorrelation functions.2) Non‐linear estimation of parameters ‐ by minimizing the sum of the squared residuals.3) Diagnostic checking ‐ by analyzing the pattern of the autocorrelation function of the residuals.Regular and adaptive forecasts are then developed using the appropriate model that emerges from the time series analysis.
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