TURİZM ODAKLI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİNİN YAPISAL KIRILMALAR İLE SINANMASI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues in Turkey within the scope of the tourism-led growth hypothesis with the help of tests that take into account structural breaks. In this context, causality and cointegration tests based on the Fourier approach were used by considering the industrial production index, tourism revenues and real effective exchange rate data for the January 2005-December 2019 period. The results of the causality test revealed that, unlike the Granger causality test, which does not take into account the structural break, the results of the causality tests that take into account the structural break have a unidirectional causality relationship from tourism revenues to economic growth. Similarly, contrast to the Johansen test, which does not take into account the break in the cointegration analysis, the Fourier Johansen test detected the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth, tourism revenues and the real exchange rate. In addition, the long-term cointegration estimation showed that tourism revenues have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth.