Turnover and Tenure in the Canadian House of Commons, 1867–1968

Abstract

This article presents a theoretical analysis of the turnover and tenure of the members of the Canadian House of Commons from 1867 through 1968. Previous studies of such turnover and tenure have been quantitative, but not theoretical, yielding precise measurements but no pattern. A statistical résumé is no substitute for a mathematical model. Both may be accurate, parsimonious, and elegant; but a mathematical theory is distinguished by its generality and its explanatory or predictive power. With the present model, for example, the members’ median and mean continuous service can be logically derived from the mathematical theory; but the converse is not true, that is, the mathematical theory cannot be deduced from the median and/or mean continuous service. Specifically, the theory implies that the median continuous service is approximately 0.693 times the mean continuous service. Despite a plethora of quantitative studies of legislative turnover and tenure, this equation (so far as we know) has not previously been discovered.The process to be modeled can be abstractly characterized as follows: Consider the members of the House of Commons after some particular (zero) general election. These legislators are called theoriginal members, for expository convenience. With the occurrence of deaths, resignations, political defeats, etc., only some of the original members will continue to be members of the House of Commons after the next (first) general election. These survivors are called there-elected members.