Turnout in English local elections—An aggregate analysis with electoral and contextual data

Abstract

Analysis of survey data by Miller has identified a number of factors influencing voter participation in local government elections in Britain. Nevertheless, variations in turnout remain so great that further investigation is required. This article uses aggregate data derived from the results of county council elections since 1981 and those for the metropolitan districts since 1982. Additional data, of a social, economic and structural nature, are also used to explore variations in electoral turnout. Using multiple regression analysis produces only a modest success in predicting turnout for the more rural county authorities. In the urban metropolitan districts, however, a much higher level of turnout could be predicted from the model.