Turning Over a New Leaf in Tripoli? Lessons from Libya's Transformation

Abstract

Over the past decade, Libya's international reputation has undergone a remarkable transformation. Previously a rogue state, Libya has been welcomed back into the international community after renouncing international terrorism and its weapons of mass destruction programs. Was this the result of a straightforward calculation of self-interests given the realities of the international system or some shift in Libyan leader Mu'ammar Qaddafi's world view? To assess this transformation, operational code analysis is utilized to systematically identify Qaddafi's world view and determine whether he underwent experiential learning, attributable to fundamental transformation of his world view, or a simple adaptation to the surrounding international environment. The findings indicate that while experiencing a modest degree of learning over time, Qaddafi did not undergo a significant transformation, but rather adapted to the international system around him. The analysis here supports viewing Libya's transformation cautiously, as perhaps a limited, temporary, and pragmatic move. For foreign actors trying to deal with seemingly other unpredictable leaders, the Libyan experience suggests that decision-making should be based on greater knowledge about the motives of individual leaders and their responsiveness to specific initiatives.