Turning On or Turning Off? Mobilization and Demobilization Effects of Participation in Presidential Nomination Campaigns

Abstract

Much of the literature emphasizes the negative effects of presidential nomination campaigns on the general election stage. Studies of divisive have suggested that primaries undermine a party's chances in the fall campaign, and the literature on the carryover finds that supporters of nomination-round losers are less likely to support their party's nominee than are those who backed the winner. We argue this literature has underestimated the mobilization effects that result from nomination campaigns. Employing data from our studies of caucus attenders in 1984 and 1988, we find evidence of a mobilizing effect of participation in nomination campaigns. In a properly specified analysis, the evidence for mobilizing effects is much stronger than for demobilization. That is, activity for a nomination contender-even when the activity is in support of a candidate who loses his or her nomination bid-increases the level of participation for the party's ticket in the fall campaign. We suggest some ways our findings can be reconciled with the literature, and we argue that an appreciation of these positive effects can motivate a reassessment of the contemporary nomination process.