Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis

Jacek Wolak,Natalia Iwaszczuk,Aleksander Iwaszczuk

doi:10.3390/en14102740

Jacek Wolak, Natalia Iwaszczuk + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en14102740

Copy DOI

Abstract

Turkmenistan is currently one of the key suppliers in the global natural gas market, and it is important to examine its competitive position in the world. The aim of this article is to forecast the development strategy of its gas sector. To achieve this aim, the authors first examined: (1) Turkmenistan’s position in the global gas market and the structure of its oil and gas sector; (2) the share of gas in Turkmenistan’s exports. They then conducted an analysis of the causal relationship between FDI and GDP. The above research made it possible to conduct a comprehensive SWOT analysis. Based on the SWOT analysis, three sector development scenarios were developed: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic. On their basis, the gas sector in Turkmenistan can build strategies for its development, considering the impact of market and non-market factors.

Highlights

Sector Development Scenarios BasedThe dynamic economic development observed since the early 1990s and the growth of the population on the planet, as well as the increase in their income and living comfort, has contributed to the rise in demand for energy by 70%
We propose to investigate the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and GDP using the Toda-Yamamoto [11] procedure for the VAR methodology
The results prove the existence of a unidirectional effect of FDI on GDP directly and indirectly through exports, as well as the existence of a bidirectional causal relationship between exports and GDP for the whole group of considered countries

Summary

Introduction

Sector Development Scenarios BasedThe dynamic economic development observed since the early 1990s and the growth of the population on the planet, as well as the increase in their income and living comfort, has contributed to the rise in demand for energy by 70%. Among them was Turkmenistan, a country with a relatively small population (3.772 million at the time) and a large territory (488 × 100 km2 ), which is rich in hydrocarbons [3]. They have a major export commodity (mainly gas), which is the primary source of foreign currency revenue for the state budget. Turkmenistan is one of the largest exporters of gas, known as “blue fuel”. This is due to its large geological reserves, estimated at approximately 20 trillion cubic meters [13]. Turkmenistan ranked seventeenth in blue fuel production in 2018 and 2019, it ranked third among the countries with the largest exported surplus compared to domestic demand (Table 1)

Objectives

Results

Conclusion