Abstract
Significance EU assistance to Turkey has eased some tensions and has the potential to improve an antagonistic relationship between Brussels and Ankara. However, Turkey's high-stakes presidential and parliamentary elections will put this to the test. Impacts Erdogan will try to win votes among the Turkish diaspora in Europe, causing friction with EU countries as in 2018. An opposition victory could deepen EU-Turkey cooperation on migration, visa liberalisation, the Customs Union and green transition. Ties with the EU will suffer further should Erdogan win and consolidate authoritarian rule. Regardless of the election outcome, Turkey-Russia relations will remain strong.
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