Turkey's bid for EU membership, contrasting views of public opinion, and vote choice. Evidence from the 2005 German federal election

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of attitudes toward Turkey's entry into the European Union on vote choice in the 2005 federal election in Germany. Building on prior research, the paper contrasts the elitist and the policy voting view. The evidence shows that citizens' opinions about Turkey's accession to the European Union do not merely reflect group-memberships and political predispositions. They also play a role in influencing voting behaviour with support of Turkey's entry raising the likelihood to vote for the SPD or the Greens while reducing the probability to cast a vote for right-wing parties, the CDU/CSU and the FDP. Finally, low educated voters are disproportionately susceptible to rely on their attitudes toward enlarging the European Union to contain Turkey. In sum, the evidence contradicts the elitist view and lends support the policy voting view implying that there is an electoral incentive for political elites to respond to public opinion on the Turkey issue.