Turkey in the geopolitics of energy

Abstract

Summary This article discusses how geography, energy markets and political developments determine Turkey's role in the geopolitics of energy. Located strategically between two continents, Turkey has a desire of becoming an international physical hub and transit corridor for natural gas, while at the same time improving its own energy security. Domestic Turkish demand and market regulations, existing and new sources of supply, as well as internal and external economic, regulatory and political factors interplay in the realization of these goals. The article argues that the potential Turkey has to become a significant player in natural gas transit depends on the simultaneous developments of the domestic political situation and the great political uncertainties in its neighborhood. If market developments allow, Turkey may become a hub for Russian gas through the Western part of the country, and it may become a hub for gas from Central Asia and the Middle East while also serving its Middle and Eastern parts. The outcome depends on domestic decisions colored by the economics of natural gas transportation and political developments in its surroundings.