Turkey as regional hegemon—2014: strategic implications for the United States

Abstract

The idea of regional hegemonic states arising in the unbalanced multi polar post‐Cold War world is receiving increasing attention. Germany and China are states often mentioned in this context because they have the economic and demographic potential to dominate Europe and Eastern Asia.1 In the summer of 2000, Michael R. Hickok identified Turkey as a potential regional hegemon influencing the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans.2 Hickok rightly identified Turkey as a gathering hegemonic state because, in comparison with its neighbors, Turkey has the economic and demographic potential necessary to become an independent player in regional affairs. At the heart of Hickok's argument is an analysis of a rapidly changing Turkish national security policy, which suggests that Turkey is intentionally moving towards the role of “independent security actor.” This study updates Hickok's theories by examining the Turkish Defense White Paper 2000; Turkish foreign and military policy as illuminated by the 2003 Iraq crisis, and recent changes to the force structure and strategic posture of Turkey. The study will address Turkish defense policy and military strategy, military trends supporting the defense policy, economic and social trends supporting the defense policy, and forces tending towards instability. The study offers a projection of what Turkish military power might look like ten years from now—in 2014. Finally, it suggests strategic implications for the US based on these projections.