Turkey and the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh: a delicate balance

Abstract

With the break-up of the Soviet Union in late 1991, Azerbaijan and Armenia both became independent, and Moscow's responsibility to manage and contain the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh suddenly disappeared. Within a few months, the conflict flared up into a full-size war, even involving Armenian regular troops and whole detachments of the former Soviet military on the side of the Karabakh Armenians.' Consequently Azerbaijan, within less than two years of fighting, lost the entire territory of the Nagomo Karabakh Autonomous Oblast but also many of its neighbouring and surrounding areas, which previously had been homogeneously Azeripopulated. Totally, over 20 per cent of the territory of the country remains under occupation. Over a million Azeris have been forced to leave their homes in Armenia, Karabakh or its surrounding areas since the beginning of the conflict in 1988. During the whole conflict and up to today's date, Azerbaijan has been for a number of reasons internationally isolated. Both the United States and Russia have pursued policies in the conflict inclined towards Armenia; so has Iran, despite the fact that it is an Islamic state and of Shii denomination just like the Azeris are. The only country that constantly expressed its support for Azerbaijan is Turkey. In all international fora Turkey has tried to explain and promote the Azeri view of the conflict, and has certainly been instrumental in preventing a pro-Armenian approach from totally dominating these fora. Furthermore Turkey and Azerbaijan jointly placed an embargo on Armenia, and Turkey refuses to normalize its relations with Armenia as long as the latter occupies territories in Azerbaijan. However, despite its support for the Azeri cause, Turkey has largely stopped short of furnishing Azerbaijan with weapons or affluent financial aid which would enable it to buy any; nor has Turkey even threatened to intervene militarily on Azerbaijan's side. Here an attempt is made to evaluate Turkey's policies in the conflict and to analyse the factors that have constrained Turkey and prevented it from pursuing a truly independent policy in the dispute. Before discussing Turkey's role in this issue, it is necessary to see a brief history of the conflict, particularly of the events following the First World War when Soviet Transcaucasia was established.