Turbidity in the Thames Estuary: How turbid do we expect it to be?

Abstract

A previously derived method (the tidal length—mean spring tidal range, TL-MSTR diagram) is used to predict the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) concentration and the residence time of the Thames Estuary. The predicted and observed residence time is 2 months. The predicted, depth-averaged ETM is 2.5 g l−1 of suspended particulate matter (SPM) at spring tides, which is much higher than that observed from surface sampling (<0.5 g l−1) and that simulated by recent models (approx. 0.6 g l−1), but is consistent with spring-tide concentrations measured throughout the water column over a tidal cycle. The observed locations of the surface 1-isohaline and 5-isohaline exhibit strong relationships with the logarithm of freshwater runoff. The observed ETM exhibits statistically significant relationships both with tidal range and the logarithm of runoff, and is generally located between the Millennium Dome and the Woolwich Reach. The apparent over-prediction of SPM afforded by the TL-MSTR diagram is unsurprising considering the removal of fine sediment by dredging and the removal of fine-sediment storage areas by embanking.