Abstract
Both palaeogeographical reconstructions and general circulation models indicate that global warming is especially strongly manifested in high latitudes. Under a 2°C increase in mean global temperature, almost the entire modern tundra zone would become potentially suitable for tree growth. Nevertheless, palaeobotanic data cannot be applied directly to estimating vegetation response to the global warming expected in the 21 st century, as they characterize a quasi-equilibrium state of ecosystems, which takes several centuries to be achieved. Low migration rates of trees, damage caused by fires and insects, processes of soil drying or paludification, and influence of herbivorous animals and human activities may slow down considerably forest spread in tundra. Climate warming will probably cause a decline in the populations of Arctic species and expansion of ranges of some southern animal species into the Arctic.
Highlights
The term “tundra” is used in its broadest sense to refer to the type of vegetation and ecosystems that occupy an area north of dense boreal forest
The Arctic ecosystems are vulnerable to expansion of woody vegetation under anthropogenic warming
Latitudinal patterns in the spread of the tundra are influenced by altitudinal zonation, in mountain areas of the south part of the forest/tundra ecotone, there is a complete transition from the northern boreal forest at low elevations to the tundra and screes in the upper mountain zone
Summary
The term “tundra” is used in its broadest sense to refer to the type of vegetation and ecosystems that occupy an area north of dense boreal forest. To evaluate the response of tundra vegetation to climate warming, it is important to reconstruct summer temperatures, since the position of the northern border of closed northern forests corresponds roughly to the mean July isotherm of 12°C [Callaghan et al, 2005].
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