Abstract
We compiled a database and systematically evaluated tsunamigenic potential of all up-to-date known crustal fault systems and subduction zones in the entire Mediterranean region that has experienced several catastrophic tsunamis in historical times. The task is accomplished by means of numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation. We have systematically simulated all representative ruptures populating known crustal faults and subduction interfaces with magnitudes ranging from 6.1 up to expected Mwmax. Maximum tsunami heights calculated everywhere along the coasts allowed us to classify the sources in terms of their tsunamigenic potential and to estimate their minimum tsunamigenic magnitude. Almost every source in the Mediterranean, starting from Mw = 6.5, is capable to produce local tsunami at the advisory level (wave height >20 cm and ≤50 cm). In respect to the watch level (wave height >50 cm) larger magnitudes are needed (Mw ≥ 6.9). Faults behave more heterogeneously in the context of far field early warning. De-aggregation of the database at any selected coastal location can reveal relevant sources of tsunami hazard for this location. Our compilation blueprints methodology that, if completed with source recurrence rates and site-specific amplification factors, can be considered as a backbone for development of optimal early warning strategies by Mediterranean tsunami warning providers.
Highlights
Despite the fact that tsunamis in the Mediterranean region are not so often compared to active subduction zone settings as for Japan, Indonesia or Chile[1], their socio-economic impact is large due to high coastal population density and infrastructure
As we aim to evaluate the tsunamigenic potential of individual seismic sources, we focus on classifying the input sources database rather than the tsunami effects at target points
Advisory alert is predicted for Mw between 7.0 and 8.2 while watch level requires Mw between 7.3 and 8.2 depending on distance and depth of the source
Summary
Despite the fact that tsunamis in the Mediterranean region are not so often compared to active subduction zone settings as for Japan, Indonesia or Chile[1], their socio-economic impact is large due to high coastal population density and infrastructure. In planning and building of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS), the first step is the assessment of the tsunami hazard This analysis is usually been done by means of numerical simulations based on a set of tsunamigenic sources of different completeness. In the Mediterranean region, tsunami hazard assessments so far were performed in two different ways: (1) studies based on individual credible worst case scenarios[6,7,8,9] or (2) probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the concept of area sources[3]. The first probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean region[3] considered the full range of magnitudes and extensive geographical coverage but the concept of area sources smeared-off seismicity from individual faults over broad geographical domains. We take these products ‘as it is’, without attempting to improve it in accord to individual suggestions, and hope that latter would result in an updated community consensus database to be used for the future studies
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