Tsunamigenic potential of an incipient submarine slope failure in the northern South China Sea

Abstract

Abstract Tsunamis generated by submarine slope failures have the potential to cause devastating consequences. The combination of (1) dense population and infrastructure along the coastline of South China Sea (SCS) and (2) frequent slope failures occurring along the marine slopes of the SCS, points to the vulnerability of China and surrounding countries to submarine landslide-related tsunamis, a geohazard that is still poorly understood in the SCS. In this study, the tsunamigenic potential of a possible future slope failure along the continental slope of the SCS is estimated, after being constrained by geophysical data interpretation and numerical modeling. Results suggest that a slope failure of a scale similar to past events would likely generate a catastrophic tsunami on the numerous islands scattered throughout the northern SCS with maximum wave height of ~21.8 m. Furthermore, the highly populated coastlines of SCS would experience widespread tsunami events, with maximum wave height of >6 m and little advance warning. This preliminary study suggests that tsunamis generated by submarine slope failure are a potentially significant geohazard to the coastlines of SCS and should be considered during the assessment of SCS geohazard.