Tsunami Risk, Preparedness and Warning System in Pakistan

Abstract

This chapter presents a review of the tsunami risk posed to the southern coasts of Pakistan and Iran by potential earthquakes from the Makran subduction zone and also presents a structure for a regional tsunami warning system. Historical data of earthquake in the Makran region shows that the region is susceptible to large earthquakes which are capable of producing destructive tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in the region can be classified into three levels based on the sizes of the earthquakes used for tsunami hazard assessments: (1) characteristic earthquake with magnitude Mw8.1, (2) maximum regional earthquake with magnitude Mw8.3, and (3) worst-case earthquakes with magnitudes Mw8.6 and Mw9.0. The aforesaid earthquakes produce wave heights up to 7, 9, 10 and 18 m at the coastlines of the Makran region. We propose a tsunami warning system in the region based on seismic waveforms and using a database of precalculated tsunami scenarios. At least 2 deep-water tsunami gauges and 50 coastal gauges are necessary for tsunami understanding and warnings in the region. Any tsunami warning system in the region needs strong international cooperation between the countries in the region.