Tsunami level disaster based on simulation scenario of earthquake modeling and seismicity in South Bali 2010-2018

Abstract

Bali is one of the areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis because it is located in the meeting area of ??two plates namely the Eurasian and Indo-Australian plates located in the south of Bali and a back-arc trust zone located in the north of Bali. Research has been carried out on tsunami hazard level analysis based on scenario modeling and earthquake seismicity in southern Bali. This study uses earthquake data in January 2010 - July 2018. Tsunami prone areas in southern Bali are Klungkung district, Nusa Penida, Kuta beach, Sanur beach, Tabanan and Gianyar districts. The research conducted aims to determine the level of tsunami hazard by looking at the tsunami run up and arrival time in the southern region of Bali. This simulation model uses 1427 data which is then processed using Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) software so that seismicity maps are obtained, and tsunami modeling uses the Tsunami Observation and Simulation Terminal (TOAST) software. The results obtained from the tsunami modeling simulation in the form of altitude (run up) and tsunami wave arrival time (arrival time) which have an average value of 1,385 - 2,776 meters with an arrival time of 20-24 minutes. The tsunami hazard level is obtained in scenario A with a magnitude of 7.5 which has a maximum value of <1 meter (low) and scenario B with a magnitude of 7.8 has a maximum tsunami run-up value of 1-3 meters (medium) and in scenario C with a magnitude 8.0 has a maximum run-up of tsunami waves of 1 - 3 meters (medium).