Tsunami hazard in the southeast Aegean Sea

Abstract

We present a systematic assessment of the earthquake-generated tsunami hazard for the Greek island of Rhodes in the SE Aegean Sea. Our approach is based on numerical hydrodynamic simulations, including inundation computations, with MOST, coupled with accurate bathymetry and topography data of the study area. We have considered several hypothetical, credible, near-field 'worst case’ scenarios, and, here we present results for four, associated with seismic events of magnitude 8.0 to 8.4. Our results include calculations of the maximum inundation, the maximum wave elevation and the maximum flow depth in specific locales, and assess the influence of the epicenter location on the tsunami hazard, for time windows of 100, 500 and 1000years. We illustrate our findings with lines superimposed on satellite images, as maps indicating the estimated maximum values, and in terms of two-dimensional histograms. Given that our composite inundation for a 1000year time period with our Monte Carlo variation of epicenters is overall larger than the inundation computed for existing well-established 'worst case' scenarios, we caution the indiscriminate use of the latter in evaluating inundation in highly populated areas.