Abstract
Abstract. This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.
Highlights
Tsunami hazard and risk assessments have become an important issue in tsunami-prone regions especially after the 2004 Aceh–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.15) and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0)
The main results that are discussed focus on the tsunami hazard level in Padang produced from all earthquake scenarios Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 (Sect. 3.1); a vulnerability assessment of tsunami evacuation shelters (TESs) considering impacts of seismic and tsunami in Padang using the Mw 9.0 scenario (Sect. 3.2); and horizontal, vertical, and integrated evacuation time maps during the tsunamigenic event using the Mw 9.0 scenario (Sect. 3.3)
The height presented in this study is the height of water flow above the mean sea level, whilst the depth refers to the water flow height above the ground
Summary
Tsunami hazard and risk assessments have become an important issue in tsunami-prone regions especially after the 2004 Aceh–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.15) and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0). Significant risk mitigation efforts have been made in recent years in high-risk countries, such as Japan, USA, Chile, New Zealand, and Indonesia (Schlurmann et al, 2010; Wood et al, 2014; Mueller et al, 2015; Raby et al, 2015). Preparedness systems for earthquake and tsunami hazards need to be improved to reduce the economic and social impact of future tsunamigenic earthquake events (Scheer et al, 2011; Wood et al, 2012). Among the tsunami-prone countries, Indonesia is in one of the most seismically active zones: there were 34 major tsunamigenic events in the last 20 years (USGS, 2015). The last major tsunamigenic earthquakes in this region were the 1797 and 1833 events (Natawidjaja et al, 2006), while two recent events, Mw 8.4 and Mw 7.9, occurred near Bengkulu on 12 and 13 September 2007 (see Fig. 1a). A study by Konca et al (2007) concluded that the recent earthquakes released far smaller amounts of slip in comparison with the accumulated slip since 1833 and, the potential of a large tsunamigenic event originated from this source remains high
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