Abstract
Abstract. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.
Highlights
Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena, but they represent an important threat and cause the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world (González et al, 2012)
Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas
Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas, with evacuation planning being an essential requirement to save lives during emergencies
Summary
Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena, but they represent an important threat and cause the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world (González et al, 2012). With a view to the successful planning of the evacuation of the population located in a tsunami prone area, several gaps in the prevailing science are identified: (i) no direct relationship between the specific evacuation-related assessments carried out and the formulation of risk reduction measures and/or an evacuation plan exists, even though some general connections are usually established; (ii) an assessment of the characteristics of the population and communities to be evacuated is not usually undertaken, (iii) the evacuation time is sometimes calculated without considering the tsunami arrival time, resulting in a lack of information regarding the degree of success that the identified evacuation time represents for the population; (iv) an analysis of the time needed by the responsible administrations to issue the tsunami warning and to inform the population is sometimes not considered, this is essential information for determining the real time available for the population to evacuate; (v) the evacuation modelling results sometimes do not identify, propose or suggest conclusions about how to reduce the risk of the populations identified in critical areas, regarding successful evacuation; and (vi) proposals for improvements in the evacuation process are frequently inadequate, lacking identification of locations to build new vertical shelters and evacuation routes, and omitting warning time reduction strategies, etc Based on this analysis, the objective of this paper is to present a framework which aims to eliminate the aboveidentified gaps, providing a global picture of what is required for the adequate formulation of evacuation plans of a study area, and to present evacuation modelling as an essential tool for risk management.
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