Tsunami evacuation facility choice behavior model in flat area and rias area considering possibility to remain at home

Hiroyuki Yoshihara,Tatsuya Kishimoto

doi:10.17815/cd.2020.71

Abstract

The tsunami associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 caused enormous damage to the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Since the occurrence of the Great Earthquake, it is urgent to develop tsunami evacuation countermeasures against the great tsunamis caused by the large earthquake that is expected to occur in the future in the country and coastal municipalities. In this study, we used logit model to estimate each parameters about the relationship between evacuees and buildings in flat area and rias area by using the evacuation behavior survey data of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The estimated results show that “whether the evacuation destination is home or not” is important when people choose the tsunami evacuation destination. Moreover, by comparing the moving in flat area and in rias area the difference between them becomes clear. By using these models, it enables to estimate the home selection probability in flat area and rias area.

Highlights

The tsunami associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 caused enormous damage to the coast of the Pacific Ocean
Research background and purpose The Great Tsunami associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 caused enormous damage to the coast of the Pacific Ocean
Since the occurrence of the Great East Japan Earthquake, it is urgent to develop tsunami evacuation countermeasures against the tsunami caused by the large earthquake that is expected to occur in the future in the country and coastal municipalities

Summary

Introduction

The tsunami associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 caused enormous damage to the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Since the occurrence of the Great East Japan Earthquake, it is urgent to develop tsunami evacuation countermeasures against the tsunami caused by the large earthquake that is expected to occur in the future in the country and coastal municipalities. [4] The purpose of this research is to clarify the characteristics of the actual evacuation behavior of the coastal community residents at the time of the occurrence of the tsunami, by modeling the evacuation facility choice behavior of evacuees at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake. We calculated the home selection probability and clarified the evacuation difficulty area We analyzed these in the topography of the flat area and the rias area and applied it to the regions where there is a possibility of the tsunami damage in the future, which helps the tsunami evacuation plan. The evacuation behavior data for modeling the evacuation behavior to the evacuation facility are GIS data of “Reconstruction Support Survey Archive”

Objectives

Findings

Conclusion