Abstract
The article summarizes the arguments in the scientific debate on public trust in vaccination against COVID-19. The main purpose of the research is to model the trend of changes in the trust in vaccination against COVID-19, analyzing time series by exponential smoothing. The object of the study is the public trust in vaccination against COVID-19. The research aims to model the changing trend of the trust in the vaccination against COVID-19 using time series analysis. Systematization of literature sources and approaches to solving the vaccination problem during the pandemic showed that various psychological, social, economic factors, including trust in official information, affect the level of trust in vaccination. Declining confidence in the authorities, medical institutions, social institutions, and the media significantly impacts the effectiveness of pandemic containment measures. The trust of the population in state institutions in scientifically based information on vaccination provides the necessary level of vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study regarding the changing trend in the level of trust in vaccination against COVID-19 analyzing time series by exponential smoothing in the article is carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) Internet users on the issues of “Trust in vaccination against COVID-19”, “Vaccination against COVID-19”, “Trust in vaccination” was carried out using Google Trends; 3) Statistica software package was used to implement exponential smoothing models. Predictive models of exponential smoothing based on the following indicators: “Trust in vaccination against COVID-19”, “Trust in vaccination”, “Vaccination against COVID-19” are constructed. Time series models related to public confidence in COVID-19 vaccination demonstrate the presence of a seasonal component every two weeks. The results of the study can be useful for the development of scientifically sound recommendations to control the vaccination process during a pandemic, to build predictions of the level of trust in vaccination against COVID-19.
Highlights
Vaccination of the population is one of the most effective methods for preventing the COVID-19 pandemic spread
Understanding the economic, political, and social factors that influence the effective deployment of the vaccination process, the decision-making of the population on vaccination requires special attention
The results demonstrate that targeted control of information flow can help reduce pandemic anxiety and increase trust in vaccination
Summary
Vaccination of the population is one of the most effective methods for preventing the COVID-19 pandemic spread. Understanding the economic, political, and social factors that influence the effective deployment of the vaccination process, the decision-making of the population on vaccination requires special attention. Study of the factors influencing the credibility of vaccination against COVID-19, modeling the level of public trust in vaccination, and developing scientifically sound recommendations to control the vaccination process during a pandemic is an urgent task. According to researchers (Karlsson et al, 2020), in coronavirus vaccination, it is important how much a person trusts the source of information about the importance and safety of vaccination, how he compares the risks and benefits of vaccination. Researchers (Vdovychenko and Zosymenko, 2021) studied the influence of political, economic, and social factors on the management and effective course of immunization campaigns in response to the pandemic on the example of EU countries
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