Trust Evaluation Model for Catching Japanese Bankruptcy Chances

Abstract

This article aims at verifying the rationality of experiential subjectivities of credit analysts. In order to understand future events that can occur in an enterprise, uncertainty can be reduced based on their expertise. Rather than bankruptcy prediction accuracy, as in preceding studies, the aim here is to build a credit risk model from the viewpoint of credit analysts with sufficient experience for causal analysis. Factors that professional analysts pay major attention to in discovering bankruptcy chances are studied. The significant factors presented are four categories of what I call trust fear factors. The significance of the credit risk model based on these four factors was validated by statistical test, and this model was verified as a pragmatic model. The finding here is that subjective expertise works effectively for discovering an enterprise’s critical situation turning towards bankruptcy.