Trust and Prospective Reconciliation: Evidence From a Protracted Armed Conflict

Abstract

Traditional approaches to international aid deal with post-conflict risks focusing on external safeguards for peacebuilding, leaving local social enhancers playing a subsidiary role. Trust has long been highlighted as a key factor that can positively affect sustainable peace efforts by reducing intergroup hostility. Surprisingly, most post-conflict studies deal with trust as a dependent variable. Using a cross-sectional multi-method field study in Colombia, we assess the impact of trust on prospective reconciliation in the midst of an ongoing peace process. We find that trust in ex-combatants and in government increases the likelihood of having positive attitudes towards future reconciliation and willingness to support not only the peace process but reconciliation activities after war. We offer evidence supporting the idea that rather than drawing exclusively on economic and military capabilities, investing in local governance infrastructures that promote prosocial behaviour and positive belief management in the pre-reconciliation face offers a complementary alternative to help societies exit civil wars while tackling barriers to peacebuilding efforts in the initial stages of a post-conflict.